Finding

khalvati-kiani-rao-2021.accuracy.accuracy-sure-available-direction-chosen.m2

Khalvati K, Kiani R, Rao RPN. Bayesian inference with incomplete knowledge explains perceptual confidence and its deviations from accuracy. Nature Communications, 2021. · Macaque random-dot motion confidence wagering task · accuracy by strength

Observed curve and fits

Fit diagnostics

Caveats on these fits (2 terms)

Each tag below is attached to one or more candidate fits for this finding. The chip column in the table flags which row carries which tag.

accuracy-summary fit
Fit is a descriptive p(correct)-by-strength model over accuracy summaries, not a signed-choice or reaction-time model.
figure/source data
Fit is based on paper figure source data or summarized values, not a full public trial table.
Variant AIC Δ AIC RMSE Caveats
chance-floor-accuracy-logistic winner 15175.6 0.0 0.0108
  • accuracy-summary fit
  • figure/source data
accuracy-rate-null 17464.6 2289.1 0.1591
  • accuracy-summary fit
  • figure/source data
Full diagnostics (logL · n · params · max abs error)
Variant logL n Free params Max |error| Predicted points
chance-floor-accuracy-logistic -7584.8 15,572 3 0.0230 5
accuracy-rate-null -8731.3 15,572 1 0.2073 5

Residuals

Fit parameters and provenance

chance-floor-accuracy-logistic.khalvati-kiani-rao-2021.accuracy.accuracy-sure-available-direction-chosen.m2

dirty fit

lapse=0.000 · slope_log2=0.768 · threshold_strength=16.822

Method
scipy.optimize.minimize
Commit
3ec74b4
Predicted points
5
BIC
15198.5

Fitted with scipy.optimize.minimize via behavtaskatlas.model_fits.chance-floor-accuracy-logistic; success=True; CONVERGENCE: RELATIVE REDUCTION OF F <= FACTR*EPSMCH

accuracy-rate-null.khalvati-kiani-rao-2021.accuracy.accuracy-sure-available-direction-chosen.m2

dirty fit

accuracy_rate=0.751

Method
manual
Commit
3ec74b4
Predicted points
5
BIC
17472.3

Fitted with manual via behavtaskatlas.model_fits.accuracy-rate-null; success=True; closed-form strength-invariant accuracy MLE

Observed points

Motion strength p_correct n
3.200 0.5442 2,499
6.400 0.5689 2,459
12.800 0.6876 2,814
25.600 0.8375 3,507
51.200 0.9483 4,293

Take it with you

Cover sheet

Self-contained Markdown for citation, slides, or notebooks

The cover sheet pins the finding to the atlas commit and includes the observed points, fit ranking, caveats, and provenance — everything needed to drop into a paper or notebook without losing the trail back to the deploy.